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August Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has surpassed the volume of the July contract. The open was above resistance at 109.85 and price rallied all session to the high at 112.875. The low came just after the open at 110.50. It settled near the high at 112.675. The rally took price past resistance at 111.675 but stopped just short of resistance at 112.975. Traders are excited that the cash market has continued to move higher. The cutout and the cash market are trading at its highs for the year and hasn’t shown any signs of a let up in strength. Exports and consumer demand are good and slaughter and production levels pretty much even with last year. This has kept prices moving higher as the stronger than expected demand has pushed prices higher, in my opinion. We’ll see!... If Hogs can break out above resistance, it could test resistance at 114.675. Resistance then comes in at 115.925. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 111.675. Support then comes in at 109.85.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 113.68 as of 06/13/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 102.81 as of 06/12/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 478,000, which is below last week’s 480,000 and above last year’s 459,672.

August Feeder Cattle opened higher and traded to the session low at 306.725. It reversed course and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 310.90. It settled near the high at 310.225. The early low tested support at 306.90 and the rising 13-DMA now at 306.875. The rally took price past resistance at 310.55 with settlement just below it. The rally also took out the Friday high. Outside market stability with a strong Equity market and a declining Crude Oil price turned sentiment around in the Feeder market, in my opinion. There was some easing of Middle East tensions as the President said he would like to see Iran come to the negotiating table to stop their nuclear program. However, Iran continued to send missiles into Israel as they pleaded with Israel to stop bombing Iran. We have video auctions coming up and the July that could determine the price action in the futures market going forward. With this and the erratic nature of the outside markets, volatility could prevail in the feeder markets. The index broke down hard on Monday’s report so it will be interesting to see how traders respond to that on Tuesday. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 309.475. Support then comes in at 307.675. If resistance is taken out at 310.55, price could test resistance at 311.90. Resistance then comes in at the all-time high at 314.20. 

The Feeder Cattle Index fell and is at 313.89 as of 06/13/2025. 

August Live Cattle opened higher, dipped to the low at 212.875 and then rallied to the high at 216.05. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled near the high at 215.55. The rally tested resistance at 215.60 and it held with settlement below it. The rally took place as a sense of calm came over the outside markets and we saw Equities rally and Crude Oil take a beating after Iran has begged for talks to resume, but they also maintain their aggressive talk to try and appear strong. There is also an assumption that the President is going to sign the agreement with England that will help our beef industry. The rally as impressive as it was didn’t take out the Friday high and the result was an inside candlestick, basically consolidating Friday’s decline. Friday’s fall closed the gap from the June 4^th high at 212.475 and June 5^th low at 213.05. The Monday reversal was in the direction of the gap proving the gap rule once again. However, there is a gap above that likely limited the rally on Monday. The gap is from the June 12^th low at 216.725 to the Friday high at 216.525. With cash quiet on Monday as packers and producers figure out their marketing, it makes some sense that we saw strength but consolidation at the same time. Cash was strong in the South last week and steady up North leading to a new all-time high average price at 238.68, keeping futures at a strong discount to the cash market. The cutout continues to show amazing strength as the packer cuts back on slaughter limiting supply for the retail industry. With the last summer holiday coming up for the Fourth of July celebration, the retail industry needs to get supply at any cost in my opinion. After that…. We’ll see!... If price falls from settlement, it could test support at 214.325. A failure from here could see a test of support at 210.975. If price can get above 215.60, it could test resistance at the gap. A rally past the gap could see resistance tested at 217.75.

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts surged 4.23 to 382.11 and select jumped 3.97 to 367.47. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 14.64 and the load count was 80.

Monday’s estimated slaughter is 103,000, which is below last week’s 112,000 and last year’s 115,735.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  Monday’s report hasn’t updated so I left Fridays in the article. So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska with live purchases steady to 2.00 lower from 240.00-242.00, compared to last week. Dressed purchases have been steady at 380 compared to Thursday. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in all other feeding regions, although not enough for an adequate market test. The latest established market in the Texas Panhandle was Wednesday at 235.00. The latest market test in Kansas was Thursday with live purchases from 233.00-238.00, mostly 235.00. The latest established market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday, with live purchases from 240.00-241.00 and dressed purchases at 380.00. 

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 232.00 – 244.00 and from 370.00 – 383.00 on a dressed +basis (so far).

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Ben DiCostanzo

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Walsh Trading, Inc.

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